Explore our thinking about today's financial markets
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The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
March 22, 2023 | Fixed income
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
Capital Markets Outlook

Banking crisis may fuel economic uncertainty
March 31, 2023 | Capital Markets Outlook
Fears of a U.S. recession are growing as credit delinquency begins to rise toward pre-pandemic levels. Explore the risk and realities of how a credit crunch could unfold.
Fixed Income Outlook

Recession on the far horizon
February 9, 2023 | Fixed Income Outlook
The rapid interest-rate tightening in 2022 has not hit the real economy yet.
Equity Insights

Health care: What innovation and a shifting landscape mean for investors
March 30, 2023 | Equity Insights
The rapidly changing nature of the health care sector offers fertile ground for seeking underappreciated stocks with significant growth potential.

What's next for the traditional 60/40 portfolio
Volatility in both stock and bond markets persisted in Q3 2022, with equity markets making new year-to-date lows and interest rates reaching the highest levels since 2008. 2022 has also presented challenges for the traditional 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio.

Slowing economic growth and fixed income performance
As a follow up to the piece we published in July that focused on decelerating economic growth and equity returns, we thought it made sense to look at how some fixed income sectors fared during the same periods. We researched this concept to better understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, credit spreads, and total returns.

Consumer sentiment and forward market performance
In light of decades-high inflation, the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, and concerns about an economic slowdown, U.S. consumer sentiment has plummeted.. This year, sentiment is historically low, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.

Style and factor performance during economic deceleration
Investors are concerned about decelerating economic growth and what this could mean for future equity returns. We researched this question to understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, earnings degradation, and any subsequent style or factor performance.

Yield curve inversion and market performance
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The central bank also indicated that this is likely the start of a tightening cycle, as policymakers attempt to dampen the elevated levels of inflation seen since the start of the pandemic.