Explore our thinking about today's financial markets
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The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
March 22, 2023 | Fixed income
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
Capital Markets Outlook

Slow your (pay)roll
January 12, 2023 | Capital Markets Outlook
We believe markets expect inflation to decline sooner than it will, and that there is limited upside for stocks.
Fixed Income Outlook

Recession on the far horizon
February 9, 2023 | Fixed Income Outlook
The rapid interest-rate tightening in 2022 has not hit the real economy yet.
Equity Insights

We believe BDCs are built to deliver dividends in a recession
March 14, 2023 | Equity Insights
We believe stocks of business development companies have evolved to better withstand a recession, and their dividends can remain at highly attractive levels.

What's next for the traditional 60/40 portfolio
Volatility in both stock and bond markets persisted in Q3 2022, with equity markets making new year-to-date lows and interest rates reaching the highest levels since 2008. 2022 has also presented challenges for the traditional 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio.

Slowing economic growth and fixed income performance
As a follow up to the piece we published in July that focused on decelerating economic growth and equity returns, we thought it made sense to look at how some fixed income sectors fared during the same periods. We researched this concept to better understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, credit spreads, and total returns.

Consumer sentiment and forward market performance
In light of decades-high inflation, the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, and concerns about an economic slowdown, U.S. consumer sentiment has plummeted.. This year, sentiment is historically low, according to the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers.

Style and factor performance during economic deceleration
Investors are concerned about decelerating economic growth and what this could mean for future equity returns. We researched this question to understand the historical relationship between an economic slowdown, earnings degradation, and any subsequent style or factor performance.

Yield curve inversion and market performance
At its March meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. The central bank also indicated that this is likely the start of a tightening cycle, as policymakers attempt to dampen the elevated levels of inflation seen since the start of the pandemic.