Weekly economic update for February 6, 2023


Highlights of key economic statistics from last week compiled by Putnam Investments.


economy

  • Construction spending fell 0.4% in December compared with November, the Census Bureau stated.

Employment

  • Initial jobless claims fell by 3,000 to 183,000 in the week ended January 28, 2023, the Department of Labor found.
  • The U.S. added 517,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in January from 3.5% in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Profits

  • As of January 31, 2023, of the 170 S&P 500 Index companies reporting fourth-quarter earnings, 119 beat analysts’ estimates, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Emotion

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined in January.

Europe

  • Eurostat found euro area GDP grew 0.1% in the fourth quarter.
  • The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator rose in the euro area in January.
  • Eurostat reported euro area annual inflation is expected to fall to 8.5% in January from 9.2% in December.

Rates

  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury note traded in a wide range.
  • The Federal Reserve raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.
  • The European Central Bank decided to increase its key interest rates by 50 basis points.
  • The Bank of England raised its bank rate by 50 basis points.

Risks

  • High energy prices, worsened by the Russia-Ukraine War, increase the risk of stagflation and recession, even as central banks seek monetary policy normalization.
  • Declining liquidity and deteriorating financial conditions, combined with high valuations, are contributing to a substantial uptick in risk asset volatility.
  • Global leverage is at worrisome levels and will eventually need to be paid for, at a time when most developed markets are facing a fiscal drag from the end of post-pandemic stimulus.

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All economic and performance information is historical and does not guarantee future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of Putnam Investments, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.