Consumer sector: The impact of inflation and other headwinds


Equity Insights offers research and perspectives from Putnam’s equity team on market trends and opportunities.


As we approach the end of a challenging year for financial markets, consumers, and retailers, analysts on our equity research team offer insights on the state of the consumer sector.


Megan Craigen
Analyst
U.S. consumer sector
Megan Craigen

U.S. consumers are facing a mix of headwinds and tailwinds, with inflation as one of the biggest challenges. While the most recent CPI data suggested inflation might be trending in the right direction, it is still extremely high and has persisted longer than expected. Its impact appears to be greatest on lower-end retailers. Companies like Walmart and Target have reported a shift in spending among their customers. Many are trading down to value brands while others are shifting their spend away from discretionary items as higher prices consume more of their budgets. Conversely, many high-end retailers have held up better, reporting strong revenue growth for their luxury products both in the U.S. and Europe. Despite the strength reported by luxury companies, we have started to spot high-end brands never seen before at “excess inventory” concepts like TJ Maxx. This could mean some weakness is starting to emerge at the margin. In addition to hitting consumer wallets, inflation has also hurt sentiment. The latest two readings showed that sentiment is still negative year over year, but less negative on a month-to-month basis, likely due to some relief at the gas pump.

A second shift in spending has complicated matters. Since early 2022, consumers have started moving their spend back toward experiences and services and away from discretionary goods as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes. Demand for travel and eating out has risen while spending on furniture, electronics, toys, and sporting goods has slowed. This has created a further mismatch between supply and demand for discretionary items across the industry. This trend accelerated in late October and into November. Bank of America credit card data for October showed a slowdown in card purchases for discretionary items from the pace in September. In addition, industry trade group NPD reported a 5% decline in general merchandise sales in October, and a 14% decline in the first week of November. Target’s Q3 earnings report revealed this slowdown hit its financial performance significantly, causing further markdowns and gross margin pressure. The stock closed down 13% the day earnings were reported [11/16/22].

Another significant challenge for the consumer is the Federal Reserve’s aggressive attempts to tame inflation. The 30-year mortgage rate is now over 7%, which has already had a negative impact on borrowing and the housing market. Pressure on home values also may affect homeowners’ willingness to invest in their homes. Higher interest rates will negatively impact employment, which would likely send the economy into a recession.

What are the tailwinds? Although the savings rate has hit historic lows as consumers spend more on everyday essentials, many consumers still have an abundance of savings from the government stimulus provided during the pandemic, as outlined in November’s Equity Insights. Also, unemployment is still near a historic low, the labor market remains tight, and wage growth is strong. Aggregate consumer spending also remains strong, thanks in part to spending on the high end.

While top-line growth is likely to soften, cyclical retailers may experience some relief as supply chain and commodity headwinds ease.

Given supply chain challenges, elevated inventory levels, and concerns about the fate of the consumer, retail stocks on average are down 35% versus the S&P 500 Index’s decline of 20% [Putnam research, as of 10/5/22]. Discretionary stocks are down 45% while defensive stocks are down 13% on average. This indicates the general consensus is that we are heading into a recession.

Retail stocks are being hurt by a shift away from discretionary spending. This shift has caused inventories to rise, putting pressure on gross margins as companies need to mark down seasonal goods to make room for fresh holiday merchandise. Inventory growth outpaced sales growth by over 30% on average in fiscal Q2.

The overall decline in the S&P 500 has been due mostly to multiple contraction and limited earnings estimate revisions overall. However, retail estimates are an exception, having been revised down 20% on average. Expectations are still for growth in aggregate, indicating that further cuts to estimates are coming.

Counterintuitively, I have recommended shifting weight toward more cyclical names, as much of the anticipated bad news is already priced into retail stocks. While top-line growth is likely to soften, cyclical retailers may experience some relief as supply chain and commodity headwinds ease. These stocks will also get helped when any good news emerges on the inflation front. The average price-to-earnings [P/E] ratio for retail stocks is 14x [as of 10/5/22]. High-quality defensive companies are trading at an average of 20x, while more cyclical businesses are trading at an average of 10x, the widest gap in memory. For consumers seeking holiday shopping guidance, there is no need to shop early. Unlike the past two years, an abundance of inventory means the greatest deals will come just before Christmas Day — procrastinators will be rewarded.


David Morgan
Analyst
Multiple non-U.S. sectors
David Morgan

Spurred in part by higher inventories, a notable trend has occurred in logistics in 2022. The cost to ship goods has declined significantly from extremely elevated levels. We finally are seeing weakening demand for shipping of consumer goods by both air and sea.

Investors may recall that the Covid-19 pandemic drove a dramatic increase in spending on certain consumer goods. With the lockdowns and the shift to work from home, we saw demand soar for items such as computers, sporting equipment, appliances, and flat-screen TVs. And the demand from retailers to ship these goods outpaced the available capacity of both container ships and planes. Furthermore, available capacity of container ships was reduced by severe congestion in ports, most notably on the U.S. West Coast. Air freight capacity also was reduced with the grounding of wide-bodied planes by airline companies as the pandemic brought sharp declines in travel demand. In pre-Covid times, international wide-bodied aircraft would carry approximately 50% of air freight.

For many companies, the pain of elevated freight costs will start to ease heading into 2023.

The heightened demand, combined with reduced capacity, led to unprecedented increases in freight rates. For example, the cost to transport a shipping container from China to the U.S. rose from approximately $2,000 per container pre-Covid to $15,000–$20,000 per container in Q3 and Q4 2021. Finally, in 2022, ocean and air freight rates began to come down. According to the Freightos Index, spot shipping rates from Asia to the U.S. have declined 80% from their peak in late 2021. Demand to ship goods has cooled for several reasons:

  • Lower consumer demand and confidence due to inflation and cost-of-living pressures
  • A shift in spending from goods to experiences, such as vacations and restaurants
  • A post-pandemic return to offices, which reduced demand for certain goods
  • Supply chain disruptions that resulted in companies pivoting their logistics strategies from “just in time” to “just in case,” resulting in a buildup of inventories [now beginning to normalize]

Today, as supply chain issues continue to normalize, many companies are now having to deal with excess inventory, often in the wrong products. Inventory destocking from high levels, as evidenced by recent results and commentary from a number of retailers, is also weighing on demand to transport goods. Destocking may prove to be a temporary phenomenon as companies go through the process of rightsizing their inventory levels, masking true underlying consumer demand trends. The positive news for many companies is that the pain of elevated freight costs will start to ease heading into 2023.


Walter Scully, CPA
Portfolio Manager, Analyst
U.S. consumer discretionary sector
Walter Scully

A Federal Reserve that acted too late has resulted in a very difficult scenario for today’s consumers. None of us can forecast macroeconomics perfectly, and the Fed is now aggressively on the case, but its success in cooling inflation will bring some pain. For example, increasing unemployment would be effective, as would a recession. Despite the gloom, there are some bright spots, and it’s important to remind ourselves of the cyclical nature of the market and the opportunities that presents. Sectors and industries that were devastated two years ago are now thriving.

One such bright spot is travel. In 2020, we heard “no one’s ever going to travel again,” and now business is booming. Pent-up demand after the lockdowns is one contributing factor, but there are other notable tailwinds. The increase in workplace flexibility is one. It has even brought us a new term — “bleisure” — the combination of business and leisure travel. With the flexibility to work from anywhere, employees are extending business trips to include their families. This results in longer hotel stays, more rental car days, and more frequent leisure travel overall. Travel outside the U.S. has been slower to recover, but travel from the U.S. to Europe has risen with the strong U.S. dollar. We believe this may have a positive impact on companies such as Hilton Worldwide and Booking Holdings, owner and operator of online travel sites, including Booking.com, OpenTable, and Priceline.com.

In 2020, we heard “no one’s ever going to travel again,” and now business is booming.

Housing is another area of focus — although the outlook here is murkier. We believe Home Depot continues to be an attractive company. Mortgage rates are up, and home prices may drift sideways or down, but what's often overlooked is that many people still have considerable housing equity. Moreover, in the U.S., we have a giant housing stock that’s aging every year, and homeowners must spend money to repair, maintain, and improve those houses. People continue to spend more time at home, and many homes now include offices, boosting demand for maintenance and improvements. It is rare for Home Depot to trade at a discount to the S&P 500 P/E multiple. We see this as a potential opportunity to increase our positions in the stock.

Long-term opportunities remain

This has been a difficult year for consumers and investors, and the volatility and inflation could be with us for some time. However, we don’t believe we will see endemic inflation like that of the 1970s, and we continue to believe that stocks — in turbulent markets or not — offer the most attractive opportunities for long-term investors.

link to equity strategies


331922


This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. This information should not be relied upon as research or investment advice regarding any strategy or security in particular. Any mention of specific securities is intended to help illustrate Putnam's research process and should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell the securities. Potential market trends and opportunities were selected without regard to whether such trends and opportunities, or relevant securities, were profitable and are intended to help illustrate our investment and research process. It should not be assumed that any investment in these securities was, or will prove to be, profitable, or that the investment decisions we make in the future will be profitable or equal to the investment performance of securities referenced herein. There is no assurance that any securities referenced herein are currently held in a Putnam portfolio or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities mentioned are not necessarily held by Putnam for all client portfolios.

This material is prepared for use by institutional investors and investment professionals and is provided for limited purposes. This material is a general communication being provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not designed to be investment advice or a recommendation of any specific investment product, strategy, or decision, and is not intended to suggest taking or refraining from any course of action. The opinions expressed in this material represent the current, good-faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication. The views are provided for informational purposes only and are subject to change. This material does not take into account any investor's particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. Investors should consult a financial advisor for advice suited to their individual financial needs. Putnam Investments cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any statements or data contained in the material. Predictions, opinions, and other information contained in this material are subject to change. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Putnam assumes no duty to update them. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As with any investment, there is a potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss.

This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed in whole or in part without the express written consent of Putnam Investments. The information provided relates to Putnam Investments and its affiliates, which include The Putnam Advisory Company, LLC and Putnam Investments Limited.®