Putnam Perspectives - Putnam Investments

Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes

June TMR template

A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.

Economic moats | Active investors seek wider moats

Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.

Why favor higher quality as credit squeeze tightens

Prudent credit selection is paramount as the Fed juggles monetary policy and financial security. Get Putnam’s insights on the SLOOS and the tightening credit squeeze.

Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation

A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.

Financial stability risk and recession odds rise

A final rate hike and a possible credit squeeze loom over the economy.

Inflation demands Fed's focus as bank lending tightens

Even as bank lending tightens, the Fed may still need to keep rates high for longer to bring down inflation.

Be careful what you wish for

Fears of a U.S. recession are growing as credit delinquency begins to rise toward pre-pandemic levels. Explore the risk and realities of how a credit crunch could unfold.

The biology revolution: Investing in innovation

Innovations within biology are transforming the world. See how savvy investors are tapping into the bio and synbio revolution.

Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability

Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.

What the Silicon Valley Bank Collapse Means for Powell and Fed Policy

Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the public's shaken faith in the banking system may affect what the Fed is willing to try to curb inflation. Learn more today.

Will interest rates go down?

Our base case for our strategy remains that a recession will wipe out excess savings, and the relatively low interest-rate environment will return.

U.S. recession outlook as China reopens

We outline possible scenarios for inflation and recession in the year ahead and how global forces play roles.

Where to watch for job losses, by sector

Young businesses are a major source of employment, a key variable determining the economic cycle.

Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending

In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.

High job openings signal wage-price spiral

Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.

How structured credit could be resilient against recession

The macro landscape calls for taking a lower level of risk and being alert to attractive opportunities.

ESG: Hearing the signal above the noise

In our view, the best opportunities lie not at the extremes of ESG rhetoric, but at the heart of sustainability substance.

What is the circular economy, and why is it important?

Adapting business models to be less resource intensive creates opportunity for environmental and economic benefit.

What is the circular economy and why is it important?

Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed's inflation fight

Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.

How markets could react to Fed and ECB meetings

A mixed batch of inflation readings moved market expectations, but it is more important to remember the Fed’s inflation dashboard.

Cracks emerge in Europe's resilience

Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.

A look at leveraged loans and CLOs

A recent Active Insights podcast features a discussion of leveraged loans, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).

U.S. recession ifs and whens

The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.

U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates

In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.

China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns

China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.

Oil prices face downside risk

We expect oil prices to enter a correction stage and for Russia’s war in Ukraine to play less of a role in oil markets.

Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth

The war and widespread sanctions will likely have a knock-on effect on economic growth, inflation, interest-rate policies, and the future of renewable energy.

War and inflation put bull market in hibernation

Investors may be underestimating the immense range of potential outcomes for the Russia-Ukraine War.

Renewed optimism for securitized credit

We are optimistic about pockets of the U.S. structured credit market — prepayment strategies and commercial mortgage-backed securities — despite shifts in the investment landscape.

Oil prices may correct after sanctions-related spike

While the Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia have lifted oil prices higher, current prices may be temporary.

Teaming up on DX: A compelling investment opportunity

As businesses work at a faster pace to modernize their technology systems, compelling investment opportunities are emerging.

Emerging markets walk a fine line

Emerging market assets — especially currencies and bonds — have proved to be resilient amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising interest rates and Omicron.

Oil: From sizzle to fizzle

Oil prices have rocketed to seven-year highs. But we have a bearish view because current prices are unsustainable.

Precautionary stockpiling and its impact on growth

Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which will influence economic growth in 2022.

Finding growth potential in unexpected places

For franchised U.S. auto dealers, consolidation and the e-commerce imperative could mark the biggest changes to the industry’s structure, possibly ever.

How could the yield curve impact risk assets in 2022?

The Fed's policy changes will have implications for the U.S. Treasury market and other financial assets.

The Fed’s conundrum — $7 lattes, $5 gas, 0% interest rates

We believe the Fed is likely behind the curve in containing inflation with ultra-low interest rates.

Consider convertibles to hedge against the risk of rising interest rates

It’s time, in our view, to think about new ways to diversify a portfolio by supplementing traditional fixed income allocations. Consider convertibles.

$100 oil may be a pipe dream

Oil prices have risen to multi-year highs on surging demand, tight supply, and the crunch on natural gas. We believe it is time to question the current rally.

Regulatory storm sweeps across China

President Xi Jinping's “common prosperity” campaign to address China's wealth gap has converged with the regulatory crackdowns.

Emerging markets leading the way in innovation

Innovation is driving exciting growth across emerging market countries.

Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal

Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.

U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65

Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.

Pandemic takes toll on emerging market finances

New mobility restrictions will be a drag on emerging economies, but we expect the impact will be less severe than during the first wave of the pandemic.