Explore research-driven analysis of evolving market themes
Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending
In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.
As inflation takes root, fixed income opportunities change
Fixed income markets experienced widespread declines in the U.S. and globally in the third quarter of 2022, as inflation remained high and became more broad-based.
High job openings signal wage-price spiral
Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.
How structured credit could be resilient against recession
The macro landscape calls for taking a lower level of risk and being alert to attractive opportunities.
ESG: Hearing the signal above the noise
In our view, the best opportunities lie not at the extremes of ESG rhetoric, but at the heart of sustainability substance.
Price stability and credibility
As the Fed's interest-rate hikes make a recession more likely, 2023 earnings estimates for stocks need to come down.
What is the circular economy, and why is it important?
Adapting business models to be less resource intensive creates opportunity for environmental and economic benefit.
Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed's inflation fight
Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.
How markets could react to Fed and ECB meetings
A mixed batch of inflation readings moved market expectations, but it is more important to remember the Fed’s inflation dashboard.
Cracks emerge in Europe's resilience
Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.
A look at leveraged loans and CLOs
A recent Active Insights podcast features a discussion of leveraged loans, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).
U.S. recession ifs and whens
The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.
U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates
In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.
China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns
China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.
Oil prices face downside risk
We expect oil prices to enter a correction stage and for Russia’s war in Ukraine to play less of a role in oil markets.
Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth
The war and widespread sanctions will likely have a knock-on effect on economic growth, inflation, interest-rate policies, and the future of renewable energy.
War and inflation put bull market in hibernation
Investors may be underestimating the immense range of potential outcomes for the Russia-Ukraine War.
Renewed optimism for securitized credit
We are optimistic about pockets of the U.S. structured credit market — prepayment strategies and commercial mortgage-backed securities — despite shifts in the investment landscape.
Oil prices may correct after sanctions-related spike
While the Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia have lifted oil prices higher, current prices may be temporary.
Teaming up on DX: A compelling investment opportunity
As businesses work at a faster pace to modernize their technology systems, compelling investment opportunities are emerging.
Emerging markets walk a fine line
Emerging market assets — especially currencies and bonds — have proved to be resilient amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising interest rates and Omicron.
Oil: From sizzle to fizzle
Oil prices have rocketed to seven-year highs. But we have a bearish view because current prices are unsustainable.
Precautionary stockpiling and its impact on growth
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which will influence economic growth in 2022.
Finding growth potential in unexpected places
For franchised U.S. auto dealers, consolidation and the e-commerce imperative could mark the biggest changes to the industry’s structure, possibly ever.
How could the yield curve impact risk assets in 2022?
The Fed's policy changes will have implications for the U.S. Treasury market and other financial assets.
The Fed’s conundrum — $7 lattes, $5 gas, 0% interest rates
We believe the Fed is likely behind the curve in containing inflation with ultra-low interest rates.
Consider convertibles to hedge against the risk of rising interest rates
It’s time, in our view, to think about new ways to diversify a portfolio by supplementing traditional fixed income allocations. Consider convertibles.
$100 oil may be a pipe dream
Oil prices have risen to multi-year highs on surging demand, tight supply, and the crunch on natural gas. We believe it is time to question the current rally.
Regulatory storm sweeps across China
President Xi Jinping's “common prosperity” campaign to address China's wealth gap has converged with the regulatory crackdowns.
Emerging markets leading the way in innovation
Innovation is driving exciting growth across emerging market countries.
Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal
Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.
U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65
Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.
Pandemic takes toll on emerging market finances
New mobility restrictions will be a drag on emerging economies, but we expect the impact will be less severe than during the first wave of the pandemic.
U.K. rebounds as consumers splurge, factories rev up
The U.K. economy is recovering as retail sales, manufacturing, and services show strong growth, driven by the easing of lockdown rules.
Toys, cars, and the U.S. recovery
We believe growth in the United States remains strong, but expectations need to be revised lower.
Oil makes a comeback as demand rises
Oil demand is likely to rise amid a stronger outlook for the United States, China, and Europe.
Don't overlook non-U.S. small caps
When focused on diversification one asset class that is often overlooked is non-U.S. small-caps.
The evolution of time-as-a-service illustrates the changing nature of economic moats, competitive advantages that protect a company’s market share.
Fiscal impetus and the U.S. labor market
We examine the interplay between President Biden's multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans, the labor market, and corporate profits.
China focuses on growth today and on tech for the future
China's ambitious five-year plan calls for self-sufficiency in technology and quality domestic growth.
Economic recovery, European-style
We believe Europe's economic activity can remain in expansion and perhaps even surprise on the upside in the second quarter.
From V-shaped recovery to bond vigilantes
The Federal Reserve remains dovish on monetary policy as bond market vigilantes push yields higher.
Clean energy: Myths, reality, and opportunities
We believe many companies are poised to benefit significantly from the big shift toward renewable energy.
Green shoots in Japan's economy
Japan's economy, the world's third largest, will likely accelerate in mid-2021 as vaccine rollouts gather steam.
Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees
Companies are beginning to focus more on mental health at work, and some are offering a wider range of supportive and preventive care.
U.S. consumers flush with cash could drive temporary inflation
An easing pandemic and rising consumption will buoy U.S. growth, and potentially inflation.
Rising yields and mixed recoveries in emerging markets
The broad outlook for emerging markets has improved as vaccinations gather pace, but higher global interest rates will create headwinds.
Oil prices rally as supply dwindles
OPEC+ will be the key determinant for near-term oil prices as the outlook for global demand improves.
Global economic recovery hinges on vaccine success
Vaccine supply and efficacy rates will be important factors for a return to pre-pandemic global activity.
New medicines and digital tools target mental health
In recent years, there have been several developments for treating mental health. These innovations — which come after decades of slower-paced advances — include novel drugs and digital offerings.
Is inflation poised to return?
We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.
China's economy pulls ahead
China’s economy is rebounding and the virus spread remains mostly under control.
U.K. starts new chapter after EU split
It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.
Vaccine-led recovery could boost emerging markets
The pace of economic recovery will differ among emerging markets, depending on COVID-19 vaccines and virus trends
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.